Spatial Transformation and Key Drivers of Land Consumption Change in the Oshan–Fasham–Meygun Region (1941–2019)

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the process of spatial transformation and identify the key drivers influencing land consumption change in the Oshan–Fasham–Meygun region between 1941 and 2019. A mixed-methods research design was employed. The quantitative component utilized remote sensing data, multi-temporal satellite imagery, historical documents, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to analyze land-use changes. The qualitative component involved semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with planners, managers, and land-use experts. Expert questionnaires were also administered to support the analysis. Data were examined through spatial analysis, exploratory factor analysis, and qualitative content analysis. Finally, triangulation was used to integrate quantitative and qualitative findings into a comprehensive interpretation of regional transformation processes. The results revealed that land consumption patterns in the study area evolved through three historical phases, shifting from a subsistence-oriented spatial system toward a commodified and capital-driven spatial structure. Among the dimensions influencing land-use change, the physical dimension ranked first with a weighted mean of 7.19, followed by the natural (6.75) and social (6.63) dimensions. Exploratory factor analysis identified five major factors explaining 79.51% of the total variance in land consumption change. The physical structure factor emerged as the most influential determinant, accounting for 33.19% of the explained variance. Qualitative findings highlighted the dominance of land-market dynamics, limited effectiveness of planning systems, institutional conflicts of interest, and the gradual decline of ecological carrying capacity. The analyses further demonstrated that areas containing water resources, orchards, and environmentally valuable landscapes experienced the highest rates of land-use conversion. Spatial transformation in the Oshan–Fasham–Meygun region is the outcome of complex interactions among physical, natural, social, economic, and institutional factors. Beyond a simple land-use change process, it reflects a broader structural transformation characterized by the commodification of space and the increasing dominance of capital accumulation over land-use planning and management, posing significant challenges to the long-term ecological sustainability of the region.