Investigating Social and Economic Factors Affecting Housing Prices (Case Study of Shiraz City)
Keywords:
social factors, Shiraz , Housing prices, economic factorsAbstract
The purpose of this study is to analyze the social and economic determinants of housing price dynamics in Shiraz over the past two decades. This research employed a descriptive–analytical design with an applied orientation. Annual time-series data for 2001–2022 were collected from official sources including the Central Bank of Iran, the Statistical Center of Iran, and the Housing and Urban Development Office of Fars Province. Variables included urbanization rate, rent index, per capita income, housing bank credits, housing tax, unemployment rate, gross national product, government expenditures on housing, construction input price index, and building permits. Data were analyzed using unit root tests, multiple regression, and error correction models. The results indicated that rent prices, per capita income, and urbanization rate had the strongest positive and significant effects on housing prices. In contrast, gross national product and government expenditures in housing showed significant negative impacts. The construction input index also exhibited a strong positive effect. The overall model demonstrated high explanatory power, accounting for more than 85 percent of housing price variations. The error correction model further revealed that demand-side variables play a more decisive role in both short- and long-term dynamics compared with supply-side factors. The findings suggest that effective housing policy requires simultaneous management of demand-side pressures, control of rent prices, strengthening household purchasing power, and reform of inefficient supply policies. Incorporating construction costs and sustainability considerations is also essential to improve housing quality and ensure long-term affordability.
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