Spatiotemporal Analysis of Land Use Change and Its Impact on Habitat Quality: A Case Study of the Talar Watershed, Mazandaran Province, Iran

Abstract

Significant land-use changes over recent decades have posed serious challenges to the ability of ecosystems to provide essential services. Consequently, it is critical to conduct a more precise assessment of the impacts of these changes on ecosystem services. This study aimed to predict future land-use maps using the Scenario Generator tool in the InVEST software suite. Past and current land-use maps were extracted and analyzed. Furthermore, the Habitat Quality tool within the same software was employed to evaluate the effects of land-use change on habitat quality in the Talar watershed, located in Mazandaran Province, Iran. The findings indicate that unregulated expansion of agricultural lands and residential areas—particularly during the 2024–2044 period—will significantly degrade habitat quality, with the most pronounced effects observed in the northern and eastern parts of the study area. Land degradation has also intensified over this period. The results suggest that human activities aimed at enhancing living standards and meeting the food demands of a growing population have led to the replacement of natural landscapes with agricultural and residential land uses. These changes have resulted in land degradation and a decline in habitat quality for both flora and fauna. If current trends persist, the extinction of native species in the near future is a serious risk. Therefore, it is imperative to adopt comprehensive and evidence-based management strategies to conserve and restore natural habitats—particularly forested areas—to improve ecosystem conditions and safeguard native species that rely on these ecosystems for survival.